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Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India - Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India

Indian government wants to attract companies moving out of China or looking for an alternative to China. The Prime Minister's Office on the management of the administration and the administration machinery of the government drawing up investment strategies. Subsequent economic times are done for this purpose, 461,589 hectares are owned. The government administration has been using the “China Plus One” strategy for several years. The Indian media has guidelines that "China Plus One" is one of the strategies Indian companies are also considering. Numerous Indian companies are relocating production, leading or leading from China. The government of Karnataka is running a "Compete with China" cluster strategy which predicts "fair quantity production". In mid-May, the German shoe brand von Wellx has to relocate all of its rights from China to India.

sees India in competition with China with the perception of trust, is also in the position of the trade war between China and the states states. In the case of Huawei, the Indian telecommunications industry in general will die Huawei in India. In July, it was found that India's restrictions on tire imports from China were delaying domestic production of other components of German premium cars. The rights imports from China to India, valued at over US $ 75 billion per year, lead to a different control of China and make a large spatial suspension of trade between the two countries difficult. By August 2020, the participating exports to India left alone with government rights and with administrative and more personal responsibility had been lost by 25%. In September, Union Minister Piyush Goyal informed parliament that Indian imports from China fell by 27.63% from April to August. China has the status of most favored nationals.

Economic situation

A newspaper seller in Tamil Nadu, India wearing safety glasses and a safety mask and gloves.

In India, we have administered a certain freedom from COVID-19 shutdown measures to operations for up to 53% of businesses, according to a FICCI election in March. By April 24, the unemployment rate in one month was rapidly 19% lower and 26% lower according to the Center for the Management of the Indian Economy Across India. Around 140,000,000 (14 crores) Indians lost their jobs to the lockdown. More than 45% of rights across the country reported a decline compared to the stated level. Various companies such as hotels and airlines have cut salaries and led employees. The contract of transport companies like Ola Cabs was falling by a rapid 95% from March to April, was one of 1,400 layoffs. It has been determined that in March and April alone the loss to the tourism industry will be 15,000 crore (US $ 2.1 billion). CII, ASSOCHAM and BELIEVE that part of tourism in the country is made up of unemployment before workers. The live events industry posted an estimated loss of £ 3,000 crore ($ 420 million).

A number of young startups have been affected as funding has fallen. A DataLabs report shows a 45% decrease in total funding in the growth phase (Series A round) compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. According to a KPMG report, venture capital in Indian startups is over 50% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 % decreased.

Electricity consumption fell sharply after the national lockdown came into force. It was almost 30 percent below normal at the end of March and a quarter below normal in April. In May it was an average of 14 percent below normal and in June it was still 8 percent below normal. Less electricity consumption means less economic activity. In the past, additional economic activity in India has been associated with additional electricity consumption of 1.3 units. The economic impact was already between $ 160 billion (5.6 percent of GDP) and $ 175 billion (6.0 percent of GDP).

Government revenues have been hit hard by falling tax collection, and as a result, the government has tried to find ways to cut its own costs. On May 10, 2020, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said that some states did not have enough money to pay salaries in the near future. In April, former Reserve Bank of India chief Raghuram Rajan said the coronavirus pandemic in India may be just the "biggest emergency since independence," while the former chief economic adviser to the Indian government said India was moving on in April should prepare a negative growth rate in FY 21.

The Indian economy was expected to be over £ 32,000 crore

Pre-slowing the pandemic

India had also seen a slowdown before the pandemic. Even before the pandemic, India's growth since fiscal 2018/19 declined by 8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 18 to 4.5% in the second quarter of fiscal 20. In January 2020 itself, long before India blocked or responded to the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund lowered India's 2019 GDP estimates, as well as its 2020 GDP forecast. The introduction of the 2016 Indian banknote demonstration and the tax on goods and services taxes

Ratings and GDP estimates

On March 27, Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) revised its estimate of Indian GDP growth for 2020 from 5.3% to 2.5%. Fitch Ratings revised its estimate for India's growth to 2%. India Ratings & Research also downgraded its estimate for fiscal year 21 to 3.6%. In April 2020, the World Bank downgraded India’s fiscal 2021 growth from the lowest numbers in three decades since India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s. On April 12, 2020, a World Bank report focusing on South Asia announced that the Indian economy was expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.8% for FY21. The World Bank report said the pandemic had "increased pre-existing risks to India's economic prospects". In mid-April, the International Monetary Fund's forecast for India for fiscal year 21 was still the highest among the G-20 nations, with GDP growth of 1.9%. Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) estimated that India's GDP for FY21 will be between 0.9% and 1.5%.

SN Agency estimate Ref
1 Amber -7%
2 ICRA -5%
3 Goldman Sachs -5%
4 Nomura -5%
5 Fitch -5%
6 SBI -4,70%
7 CARE rating -1,5% -1,6%

On April 28, the former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) of the Indian government said India should prepare for a negative growth rate in FY21. On May 22, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also said India's GDP growth will remain negative in FY21. Following the announcement of the Indian economic package, numerous agencies downgraded their GDP forecasts for fiscal year 21. The rating agency ICRA downgraded the estimates to -5%, Goldman Sachs also forecast the same estimate of -5%. These revised GDP estimates signaled a deep recession. On May 26th, CRISIL made the following statement:

India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalization and perhaps the worst to date, is here.

State Bank of India surveys forecast a decline in GDP of over 40% for the first quarter of fiscal year 21. For the states, the total loss due to COVID-19 is estimated at 13.5% of the total gross domestic product. The Ministry of Statistics released India's GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 20 at 3.1%, while total GDP for fiscal year 20 is 4.2%. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the current CEA, said the slowdown in GDP growth to 3.1% in the fourth quarter of FY 20 was mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Indian economy. The CEA noted that over 30 countries' ratings have also been downgraded.

On June 1, Moody's downgraded India's country ratings to the lowest possible level. Moody's made it clear that although the rating downgrade took place in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, "it was not driven by the effects of the pandemic", but for reasons such as "poor implementation of economic reforms since 2017" and "a significant deterioration in the budget" Position of governments (central and state) ". Moody's rating is now in line with S & P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, which also give India the lowest investment grade. In July Jefferies' confirmed a decline in real GDP of 5 Nomura gave the following estimates: -5.6% in the third quarter of 20, -2.8% in the fourth quarter of 20, and -1.4% in the first quarter of 2021.

The contraction that India is expected to expect in fiscal year 21 will not be uniform, but will differ according to various parameters such as state and sector. A decline is expected in the agriculture and government sectors. On September 1, 2020, the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation released GDP figures for the first quarter of fiscal year 2021, which showed a decrease of 24%.

GJ GDP growth%
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY 20
FY 21

Exports and imports

India's exports fell -36.65% yoy in April 2020, while imports fell -47.36% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

India's exports declined in numerous sectors in April 2020 compared to the same period last year.

energy

Night lights and economic activity are linked. In Delhi, night light radiation fell 37.2% from March 1st to March 31st, 2019. This was the largest decrease of all subways in India. Bangalore fell 32% while Mumbai fell 29%. India's fuel needs decreased nearly 46% year over year in April 2020. Fuel consumption was the lowest since 2007. Cooking gas (LPG) sales increased ~ 12%. An April report by the International Energy Agency estimated that India's annual fuel consumption will decrease by 5.6% in 2020. Diesel demand will decrease by ~ 6%. In the first half of June 2020, India's fuel demand was 80-85% of what it was before the lockdown. However, the Indian oil minister said it would take much longer for demand growth to return to pre-covide levels.

Oil prices fell sharply in 2020 after the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand also fell sharply. By mid-May, India had already filled its strategic warehouse, including storing oil on ships around the world. India is now trying to store oil in other countries including America. India also plans to increase its local strategic oil storage capacity.

Agriculture

A study by the Public Health Foundation of India,

As of April 20, under the new lockdown guidelines, to reopen the economy and ease the lockdown, farms such as milk, tea, coffee and rubber plantations, as well as related shops and industries, have reopened. By the end of April, 17,986 crore (USD 2.5 billion) had been transferred to farmers under the PM-KISAN program. Odisha passed new laws to encourage contract farming.

Manufacturing

Large companies in India such as Larsen and Toubro, Bharat Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, the fashion and retail divisions of the Aditya Birla Group, Tata Motors and Thermax are temporarily suspended or significantly reduced operations in a number of manufacturing facilities and factories across the country. iPhone manufacturing companies in India also stopped much of the activity. Almost all two-wheeler and four-wheeler manufacturers will stop production until further notice. Many companies have chosen to remain closed until at least March 31, such as Cummins, which has temporarily closed its Maharashtra offices. Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Dabur India closed production facilities with the exception of factories that produce the bare minimum. Foxconn and Wistron Corp, iPhone maker, ceased production after the 21-day ban.

Inventory Markets

March 23, 2020 record the Stock markets in India worst losses in history. SENSEX fell 4000 points (13.15%) and NSE NIFTY fell 1150 points (12.98%). On March 25, one day after the Prime Minister announced a full 21-day lockdown, SENSEX saw its largest gains in 11 years, valued at £ 4.7 lakh crore ($ 66 billion) crore for investors. On April 8, stock markets in India rose sharply again after a positive hint from Wall Street that the US pandemic may have peaked. Nifty held the 9500 mark through April 29.

Indices: S & P BSE 500 (period January - 2015 to May - 2020). Open, high, low, close visible. Autumn in black. Shows interests in white.

E-commerce

In the old week of March, Amazon heard selling unsold items in India explained to differentiate how it is possible. Amazonian rights policy in Italy and France. As of March 25, Walmart is owned by Flipkart for some of its services on its e-commerce platform. BigBasket and Grofers use different equal competent services to hinder the following of the blocking. Delhi Police began issuing curfews to delivery drivers to encourage them to keep the supply chain open. E-commerce companies also sought private rights around the definition of "essentials".

defense

The Ministry of Military, led by the Chief of Staff of Defense, postponed all capital acquisitions until the coronavirus pandemic ensues. At the beginning of the 2020/21 financial year there are no new new rights. If the delivery of S-400 missile systems is not affected, it was determined that the delivery of Rafale fighter aircraft is capacity to act. On March 24th in France it does not say that there will be the 36 Rafale jets at the time of delivery.

In May the Chief of Staff Bipin Rawat took action after this and boost domestic production.

"Covid-19 has all [...] implications that our operational rights and that we needed to have had to be rethought. [...] Boost 'Make in India', compensate our domestic industry in hand hold even if they give weapons with only 70% of the GSQRs (qualitative different of the general personnel) at the beginning. With these possible they will hear their cutting-edge technology. [...] We do not require expeditionary troops to be stationed around the globe . [...] We do not have large quantities and one important meaning, compensate ourselves for our operational rights of misrepresentation. "

Certain of the perception of the economic package, the finance ministry, a certain FDI cap from 49% to 74% for defense, corporatization, one of the Indian arms production and a list for the prohibition of legal currency imports.

Government revenues and revenues

The various of the personal rights they have including the cost of capital as well as government plans in the near future and alternative ways to find salaries. The government of Delhi has missed the tax collection by 90% compared to 2019 and facility, in the same setting credit and taxes to taxes. Maharashtra has all new capital works through March central seasons. Government development spending was lost 67% for the current fiscal year. Madhya Pradesh government income is down 85% in April and borrowing is down.

The government of Delhi as well as the government of Andhra Pradesh have a certain corona tax of 70% to 75% on alcohol. The consumption tax on spirits is the third largest source of information for a number of states, quickly reaching 10-15% of the total tax collection for some states. The ban on lockdown affected alcohol sales, it was protected, and government revenues.

Concerns and comments

There have been concerns about where the government will find the means to control the coronavirus and keep the economy alive. Expertise concerns such as examining NPA norms, tax payments, and income control for taxes in the unorganized settlements. As in other countries, a direct money transfer system for the observers is also being considered.

On the 8thApril 2020, the manager of Bajaj Auto, Rajiv Bajaj, wrote in an opinion piece in the Economic Times that the "lockdown makes India weak in breaching the epidemic" and that the rights "arbitrary" lockdown becomes untenable and a "recalibration" "is used". Rajiv Bajaj helps that "India must safely pull itself out of the coronavirus crisis". After the economic package, Barbara Harriss-White criticized the Modi government administration's "shock tactics" of the COVID-19 pandemic, the same Shock tactic "that was" of demonization.

The Press Information Bureau has conducted a fact-checking process that is awkward stories about someone in India that have never been imposed in the history of India. Numerous companies carry out their business needs to keep employee anxiety to a minimum. Hero MotoCorp has improved video city hall meetings, Tata Group has reviewed a task force to shape work from home, and the Siemens task force has concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic danger versus health condition

"India risks economic hara-kiri [suicide] if the lockdown lasts much longer." (May 11, 2020)
(May 25, 2020)

Anand Mahindra,

In March Adar Poonawalla, CEO of the Serum Institute of India, said that "the risk of the outbreak is exponentially more important than its health risks". On April 29, Indian billionaire NR Narayana Murthy said that if the lockdown is protected, India will suffer more from suffering from hunger than from the pandemic.

Supply chains and logistics

Various supply chains collapsed after the lockdown. Britannia Industries in charge of the lockdown and government for the government that becomes the interstate movement of raw material for the food industry. The management of Britannia rights: "If even one link in the supply chain becomes, the country will in the relationship 7 to 10 days the stocks of packaged necessary properties." Many interstate trips have been banned, gilded not for the essentials and a place like Maharashtra the state police have yet to streamline and deliver the process. Vidya Krishnan writes in The Atlantic that the war of blocking even the traffic of goods-related war.

On March 29, the government will block the transport of all rights and not control goods across the Atlantic. The supply chains for milk and newspapers have been brought into line.

wages

Insurance coverage on March 19th companies and high income populations on the government to offer everyone who does this, they love. He also appealed to the families of the live broadcast not to cut the payment of the financial aid. After the lockdown of government administration and administration, with management, administration, administration. The Treasury Department purchased an Office Memorandum on March 23, 2020:

[...] wherever dies is contractually lost, the lost and fraudulent employees of the ministries / departments and other responsible members of the Indian government must. This is the case in which the blocking order in relation to the COVID-19 representation at home [. ..] You will be heard as "on duty" at this time of absence, and the wages / wages belongs rightly. [...]
These rights are valid until April 30, 2020.

Addt Sect, Payments Department, Treasury Department

A few days later the rights, how and whether wages belong to the rights war will be legal or not. There were also personal from migrant workers who had heard of the jobs as many day bets had no record of being seen or salaries given or deducted. The concerns also extend to rights related to the powers of the government, rights wages under lockdown by taxes, when dying at times is not even possible at times.

May 15th. The Supreme Comment suggests that the government has no "coercion" against non-payment of wages, the lockdown. The court comments on the government decree of March 29th.

Migrant workers and labor

The day wage laborers had the rights of the blockage to work poor and the migrant workers no longer had work which, according to the block description, belongs to the movement of buses and trains. Large numbers of migrant workers returned to their villages.

Shortly after an instruction from the central government in late March, the state governments set up 21,000 camps to receive over 660,000 migrants and stop the exodus. In the last week of March, the government in Delhi took over over 500 famine relief operations. By April 5, 75 lakh were in grocery stores operated by the government and non-governmental organizations across the country with apparent. By April 12, there were 37,978 relief camps and 26,225 food storage instructions. Migrants in the camps in Kerala were managed with the tools like masks, disinfectants and contracts.

Brief loss of nationwide lockdown in late March disabled war, FM Sitharaman access a crore of 1.7 lakh crore ($ 24 billion) at. Purchase plan for the poor. This consisted of money transfers and taxes to ensure quality assurance. To get the job done and provide wages, MGNREGA total daily wage was pulled from relationships £ 182 (US $ 2.60) to £ 202 (US $ 2.80) as of April 1. On May 14th, FM Sitharaman also provided free food grains to the migrant workers and the 80 million migrant workers, valued at US $ 350.

The railroads transported 48,000,000 migrants back on their own in the US to include special trains for them between May 1st and 27th. This service service was not free of charge and access via personal tariff processing, the central government gave the railways a subsidy of 85% on the train tariffs, and the state governments financed the 15%. In the same period, interests 91 lakh migrants traveled both on trains and buses.

The relations of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be drawing and moving from the beginning of May to revise their labor laws. Unions criticize dies as harmful to migrant workers and give workers more rights.

On June 20, 2020, the government will become the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan for the benefit of migrants. In July, Livemint reported that companies were struggling to bring their workforce back. Even after incentives, many workers are reluctant to return to urban areas.

Cooperation between the center and the state

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were numerous disputes between the center and the state that had a social situation. economic effects other than the immediate political effects. Some disputes are not directly related to the pandemic, such as the Chief Minister of Telangana on the Electricity Law (Amendment). Other disputes are directly related to the impact of the pandemic, such as the emigration of migrants. Alcohol became another source of contention. Some states have had disputes with the center over the implementation of the lockdown.

In view of the coronavirus pandemic, the Modi government has suspended members of Parliament's Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS) for two years. This action has been identified as problematic in many ways, including a centralization of power, a federalist character and influence on development at the local level and the influence of MPs at the micro-level of society to deal with hardship. Instead, calls were made to stop the redevelopment of the Central Vista project in Delhi by £ 20,000 crore (USD 2.8 billion).

During the exit from the lockdown there was a lack of central and state cooperation, as well as local authorities. This became visible in dealing with migrant workers; After the restart of the company there is a labor shortage.

Economic recovery

In early May, Duvvuri Subbarao, a former RBI governor, said India could look forward to a V-shaped recovery. A V-shaped recovery is the best result. Arthur D. Little, an international consulting firm, has suggested that India is most likely to see a W-shaped recovery. Mythili Bhusnurmath writes in The Economic Times that a U-shaped recovery is most likely to be followed by an L-shaped recovery. CRISIL Chief Economist says if things are going well, if the virus is in it, we can expect a V recovery, otherwise it will end up as a U recovery.

In the second week of May, companies began preparations for resumption of operations. Some companies opened offices at the maximum allowed strength of 33%, while others took a cautious approach of only 5%. At the beginning of June, the companies reopened and were planning to reopen. A study by Elara Securities Inc. found that five Indian states, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Karnataka, contribute 27% to India's GDP as India emerges from a full lockdown. In mid-June, unemployment was back at the level it was before the lockdown. Online sales reached pre-Covid sales in late June. Hindustan Unilever had pre-Covid sales in late June. On July 2, 2020, The Times of India reported that a number of economic indicators such as Manufacturers Purchasing Managers Index, Movements of Goods, GST Collections, Electricity Consumption and Rail Transport Freight Transport showed a significant improvement compared to previous months.

On July 24, 2020, Ajay Bhushan Pandey, India's finance minister, said the "Indian economy could revive sooner than" we expect "while Tarun Bajaj, the economy minister said he expects a V-shaped recovery. Localized intermittent standstills in July negatively impacted aspects of the country's economic recovery. On July 29, 2020, India's Cabinet passed the 2020 National Education Policy to strengthen the economy. By September 13, 2020, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index showed economic activity was almost back to pre-lockdown levels. On September 24, 2020, the Economic Times reported that Kevin Sneader, global managing partner of McKinsey and Co., at the ET Global Summit said: "Many economists have spoken about this since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the shape of 'V', 'U' and 'K' has been recovering. However, there could be an X shape recovery for the global economy, including India, most likely. "

credentials

further reading

Reports / think tank reports

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